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There is no down-trend in the market for the short-term | Know more

Nifty 50: 10.693.70
Sensex: 35,673.25
Above are the levels that Nifty 50 and Sensex are currently trading at, after making their 3 month maximum lows in October. Nifty50 made 10,004.55 on October 26th and Sensex 26,992.48 on October 5th respectively. Since from then the charts of Nifty50 and Sensex are diversified little-bit in their growth rate as well as Simple Moving Averages as per my analytics. So are the directions.


If we look at the growth percentages, Nifty50 has made just 6% to 7% growth from the October’s low of 10,004.55. Where as Sensex has gained from 33,349.31 to 36,241.0 on 3rd December. A gain of 8%. Differed by 1%. That’s not considerable, but the future technical pattern is going to differ a bit more.
One can expect the consolidation phase in both the indices till the 20th December’18. After which growth will be seen towards end of first week of January’19. Fast growth is expecting from then onwards driven by the Q3 results. This may drive both the indices fast to test their maximum possible highs towards the end of February’19. Then expecting the correction. Nifty stats are much bullish than the Sensex.
But how much and until when will be discussed in my next post. Not possible to view now itself.
Until then Happy Investing & Trading to all.

FII Selling Presure May Drag The Market More Down-Side | Don’t Sell Off | Know More

As in the news, the reason for fall is the FII selling pressure due to FED rate hike again. It’s true upto certain extent. But, if one can go through the numbers, the impact due to that is very minimum. For example, from 1st October the gross sales by FIIs is Rs. 119,007.45 (Cr) where as Gross Purchase is Rs. 93,822.71 (Cr). The difference is Rs. -25,184.74 (Cr). Where as the DII Gross Purchase has increased to Rs. 86,569.01 (Cr) in comparison with Gross Sales of Rs. 65,549.97. Which is positive sign of Rs. 21,019.04 (Cr). The difference between FII and DII activity makes up just (-25,184.74+21,019.04) Rs. -4,165.7 Cr.


The current down trend may hardly continue till the first week-end of November. Correction is common in any Index. Can’t blame any single constituent that’s responsible. We are aware that there are many factors that will drive the market in either directions. By the time Nifty was traded at 11,760 points, many Big Caps have given multiple returns. Few Midcaps too have given big returns and others mid-level. Only Small Cap portfolios have been beaten down by almost 50% loss or even more.

Other factors, if we consider are just booking the profits occasionally on rise, due to the fear of fall before elections. Big individual investors started to book profits. Small retail investors also contribute to the small extent.

The quantity bringing in by the DII is more than the net selling quantity. As of 26th October’2018, the net the DII are buying more than the amount that of net FII selling (-1,356.66 & 1,875.89)

It’s true that the investors who were willing to go long are in big loss. There is no way but holding the portfolios. I suggest to hold and exit as soon as your buy price is reached. because the correction of Indian Indices may extend beyond 2019.
Down side expectation for Nifty 50 would be around 9650. Sensex around 32000.
Short-term Nifty Small Cap correction is almost over. Gains will start from November second week. Don’t decide to go long. Trade off at the resistance levels.

The above targets may vary slightly. Nifty has the chances of slipping down to 9500 levels.

For guidance, post your queries in the ‘Stock Investment Discussion Forum‘. Will be answered asap.

Big Cap Strategy

There are two possibilities.

In the first case, if there is a push back from the current low of 33, 291.58 (Sensex), Market will test this level again to move up. The upside will be somewhere around 38,000.

In the Second case, market fall will continue with slight push ups, till the resistance level of (29500-30000) and Nifty 50 (8900).

Markets are very sensitive. Even small contributing factors will drive them in different direction. So are the targets.

Anyways, our economy is continually striving to become self sustained. I’m expecting the previous rally in the indian indices from June’19 itself. So, better to hold your investments. Don’t sell off in hurry.

For day to day market analytics, follow the Market Analytics Forum to take the more informed decisions.

Mid Cap & Small Cap Strategy

Simple. Neither sell or nor buy. Just hold. Expecting reversal back from where the long-term Big Cap correction starts. If not in the case of few much fallen small caps, will give you the chance to trade off. So hold is suggested.

All assumptions are made, purely based on ‘Technical Analysis’ as well as the prevailing ‘Socio-Economic’ conditions that may directly or  indirectly affect all the businesses in general. Please do, your own analysis before investing. I’m not at all responsible for your future investment decisions.

-Hameeda Ghori

 

Why You Should Not Sell SmallCaps Now

Today only SmallCap Index has corrected. Nifty 50 and Sensex are on recovery mode. If we have a look at the past, Smallcap recovery always falls behind the major indices NIFTY & Sensex. Hence, within a day or two small cap index will also recover. Time to show your patience.


Here a much fallen stock with sure-shot recovery.

Pioneer Investment Corporation

Currently Trading at Rs.20, the stock’s target is very high. It might be around 150-200 levels. Which will give you 700% return in the coming 5-6 months period.

Add-on drops is recommended.

Others will be updated.