FII Selling Presure May Drag The Market More Down-Side | Don’t Sell Off | Know More

As in the news, the reason for fall is the FII selling pressure due to FED rate hike again. It’s true upto certain extent. But, if one can go through the numbers, the impact due to that is very minimum. For example, from 1st October the gross sales by FIIs is Rs. 119,007.45 (Cr) where as Gross Purchase is Rs. 93,822.71 (Cr). The difference is Rs. -25,184.74 (Cr). Where as the DII Gross Purchase has increased to Rs. 86,569.01 (Cr) in comparison with Gross Sales of Rs. 65,549.97. Which is positive sign of Rs. 21,019.04 (Cr). The difference between FII and DII activity makes up just (-25,184.74+21,019.04) Rs. -4,165.7 Cr.


The current down trend may hardly continue till the first week-end of November. Correction is common in any Index. Can’t blame any single constituent that’s responsible. We are aware that there are many factors that will drive the market in either directions. By the time Nifty was traded at 11,760 points, many Big Caps have given multiple returns. Few Midcaps too have given big returns and others mid-level. Only Small Cap portfolios have been beaten down by almost 50% loss or even more.

Other factors, if we consider are just booking the profits occasionally on rise, due to the fear of fall before elections. Big individual investors started to book profits. Small retail investors also contribute to the small extent.

The quantity bringing in by the DII is more than the net selling quantity. As of 26th October’2018, the net the DII are buying more than the amount that of net FII selling (-1,356.66 & 1,875.89)

It’s true that the investors who were willing to go long are in big loss. There is no way but holding the portfolios. I suggest to hold and exit as soon as your buy price is reached. because the correction of Indian Indices may extend beyond 2019.
Down side expectation for Nifty 50 would be around 9650. Sensex around 32000.
Short-term Nifty Small Cap correction is almost over. Gains will start from November second week. Don’t decide to go long. Trade off at the resistance levels.

The above targets may vary slightly. Nifty has the chances of slipping down to 9500 levels.

For guidance, post your queries in the ‘Stock Investment Discussion Forum‘. Will be answered asap.

Big Cap Strategy

There are two possibilities.

In the first case, if there is a push back from the current low of 33, 291.58 (Sensex), Market will test this level again to move up. The upside will be somewhere around 38,000.

In the Second case, market fall will continue with slight push ups, till the resistance level of (29500-30000) and Nifty 50 (8900).

Markets are very sensitive. Even small contributing factors will drive them in different direction. So are the targets.

Anyways, our economy is continually striving to become self sustained. I’m expecting the previous rally in the indian indices from June’19 itself. So, better to hold your investments. Don’t sell off in hurry.

For day to day market analytics, follow the Market Analytics Forum to take the more informed decisions.

Mid Cap & Small Cap Strategy

Simple. Neither sell or nor buy. Just hold. Expecting reversal back from where the long-term Big Cap correction starts. If not in the case of few much fallen small caps, will give you the chance to trade off. So hold is suggested.

All assumptions are made, purely based on ‘Technical Analysis’ as well as the prevailing ‘Socio-Economic’ conditions that may directly or  indirectly affect all the businesses in general. Please do, your own analysis before investing. I’m not at all responsible for your future investment decisions.

-Hameeda Ghori

 

Parag Milk Food Limited | Try To SIP In

 

Parag Milk Food is an upcoming diary production brand. Started in 1992, the factory is located on the Mumbai-Noida highway.


BRANDS AND PRODUCTS

KEY FINANCIALS

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs. 253.3 – Rs. 254.30

Market Capital (Avg): Rs. 2200 Cr.

Book Value: Rs. 47.72

EPS: 1.20

P/E: 37/38, Which was around 58 in the recent past. Has been reduced drastically within a short span of time ( 2 Months ). Which can be considered as a positive indication towards it’s price stability.

P/B: 5.31 Which is less than Vadilal Ind (7.62), Britannia (18).

Face Value: Rs.10 That’s what many good businesses keep-up their face value.

Dividend (%): 0. May consider it as, the company is utilising the profits entirely for its growth. Hence the huge growth rate can be expected. 52 Week low /high: Rs. 201.75 /Rs. 357. I hope it will soon cross the 52 week high.

GROWTH RATE

There is a considerable improvement in sales of Rs. 14 Cr for the quarter ended March 2017, as compared to the previous year. That’s in comparison with the quarter ended March 2016.

The Net Profit for the financial year 2014 is Rs. 16  Cr., whereas by the year 2016 it has been improved to Rs. 47.30 Cr. That’s we can consider as a growth rate of around 200% for 2 years. It may jump to 400% for the coming 2 years, technicals are Suggesting.

TECHNICALS

Consolidation phase is over. What’s left is the distribution phase. During distribution phase, who are really going to gain are the long term investors. One big tally takes the stock value to the level that will surpass all our expectations. Better to keep invested to be the part of that in imaginable growth and prosperity.

Don’t forget to write your valuable comment below.

Dare to reach the target price here

Updates

  • Today, ‘Buy Signal’ has been triggered. Just buy and hold for the short-term target of 290+ (04/10/2017)
  • Parag Milk Foods announced the launch of a digital TVC for its whey protein product – Avvatar Absolute whey protein.
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